Though it's only been a few weeks, and Mike Napoli is probably still parading around shirtless somewhere, Major League Baseball Free Agency began already (November 5th to be exact). Nobody has yet to sign, as the MLB is known for having a slow start to free agency that usually picks up in early December. For my Predictions, I will start by Red Sox players who are now free agents, followed by potential signees and then possible trade targets to wrap it up.
Red Sox Free Agents: Jacoby Ellsbury, Stephen Drew, Mike Napoli, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Joel Hanrahan.
Let's Start with the biggest name:
1. Jacoby Ellsbury:
In a previous blog, I mentioned that Jacoby is the tone setter for the Boston Red Sox. By that, I meant that he literally determines how the game goes. One of the best leadoff hitters in baseball, Jacoby is one of few who can get on first, steal second, and score on a base hit. He scored a very solid 92 runs this year, which happened to lead the Red Sox. Jacoby Ellsbury is the total package when it comes to evaluating a baseball player. He can run, he can hit and he can play center field with ease. Personally, I believe this is the one person the Red Sox CANNOT let walk. But based on reports, it looks like Ellsbury's time here is done. If that is true, I see him in one of three spots. First, The Seattle Mariners. This was his hometown team growing up (he is from Oregon), and it makes the most sense. Seattle has lost out on big free agents in the past and shouldn't let Jacoby slide by either. Two sleeper teams could be the Washington Nationals and the New York Yankees. The Nationals have a good young team built around Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, and adding Ellsbury could put them above and beyond. The Yankees, always looking to make a splash, makes sense because Curtis Granderson could easily walk, opening up center field in the Bronx. When it's all said and done, I sadly see Jacoby heading out west, the AL West, and accepting a deal with his hometown squad. As far as money goes, I see him raking in about 130 million dollars for 6 years.
2. Stephen Drew-
A lot of people hated on Stephen Drew because of his bat in the postseason. Everybody overlooked his defense skills and jumped right to his Batting Average. While it was awful, Drew batted .256 in the regular season while driving in 67 runs. Not bad for a guy known for his defense, not bad at all. While Drew is set to decline his 14.1 million qualifying offer, that doesn't quite close the door on his return to the Sox. Drew is thought to be seeking a 3-4 year deal, somewhere in the range of 12-14 per year. I believe that is excessive for him, but the market calls for what the market calls for. It would be a mistake to let Drew walk without even offering a multiyear deal, because Bogaerts at short and Middlebrooks at third will not return you to the World Series. If I were the Sox, I would lock up Drew for 3 years and make Xander a third basemen. When Drew's contract is up, Bogaerts is 25 at the oldest and can make the switch back to short. (Assuming Garin Cecchini keeps flying up the Red Sox farm system at 3rd base). Along with the Red Sox, I can see Drew going many places, especially St. Louis. As we saw in October they are an outstanding young baseball team with a dire need for a shortstop. Drew could and very well may be that guy. One sleeper team could be the Reds, but I think that is a long shot. When free agency heats up, I see Stephen Drew staying in Boston for 3 years and 39 million dollars.
3. Mike Napoli:
Last winter, when the Sox inked Mike Napoli to a deal, I was very excited. I had seen what he had done in Anaheim and in Texas (mostly when he was hitting nukes against us), so i expected the same here. And that's where my love for Mike Napoli ended. Sure, he hit 23 home runs and drove in 92 runs which is fine and dandy, but unless your a hard ass with stats like I am, you may have missed some things. First of all, the number of times Mike Napoli struck out this year is astonishing. The guy went down by way of a "K" 187 times. Pedroia's strikeout number? 75. You can not play major league baseball and get away with that many strikeouts. But somehow Napoli does. Hell, Salty can't hit a fastball and he only struck out 139 times, which still sucks but you get the point. It doesn't matter what I think though, it matters what GM Ben Cherington and his baseball operations guys think. And their view is much different than mine. They like Mike Napoli and hope to bring him back. Along with the 14.1 million dollar qualifying offer, which he will deny, the sox are reported to have offered Napoli multiple years. While he will test the market, don't be surprised to see him back in a Red Sox uniform for the next couple of years. There is a slight chance he returns to Texas, but my prediction is Mike Napoli comes back to the Red Sox for 3 years and at least 30 million dollars.
(Beard or no Beard?)
4. The "Salty" Dog:
Don't get me wrong, Jarrod Saltalamacchia seems like a good guy off the field, but on the field he looks like a lost puppy. Statistically, Salty had his best season, but most of the time it is comical to watch him bat. It even became a running joke during that playoffs between me and Justin. We would guess how many pitches it would take for Salty to strike out. (Spoiler alert: it's usually no more than 3). I don't want to get into his defense, so I will leave it at this: There are far better catchers out there for the Red Sox to get. (Mostly through trades because Salty is sadly the 2nd best Catcher on the market). The Sox didn't extend a qualifying offer to Salty, which made him a free agent right away. Of course we can't rule out a return to Boston, but I see Salty fitting in with the White Sox or the Phillies. I would pay him about 5 million max based on the market, but he could probably grab up to 10 million per year. I believe Salty ends up with the White Sox on a 4 year deal worth about 26 million dollars.
(Can't argue that he has some sweet salad under that hat.)
5. Joel Hanrahan:
If you are asking yourself "who?" then you probably aren't alone here. Back in the winter offseason the Sox were involved in a 6 player deal that sent the 31 year old closer to Beantown. He unfortunately had to be shutdown in May. Whether he comes back or not depends on price. Obviously if he comes back it would have to be on a one year deal and for not a lot of money. I can see Hanrahan going to a boat load of teams, but if he comes back I think it'll be in the 5-8 million range.
POTENTIAL FREE AGENT SIGNINGS:
Brian McCann: This would be a costly one for the Red Sox, maybe even 100 million, but I think this would be a fantastic signing. McCann has been the man behind the plate for the Atlanta Braves for several seasons, making many All-Star appearances. He is only 29 (30 in February), but he is a solid defensive catcher and can swing the bat fairly well. Two big reasons why he may end up here: 1. He is a good friend of former Brave and current Sox catcher David Ross. 2. To keep him out of New York. The Yankees need a long term catcher and McCann is their guy. It would be nice to see McCann in Red Sox instead of Pinstripes.
Carlos Beltran: Because it has been in the news, I felt the need to address this guy. A 36 year old outfielder who is in decline and can barely play the field, and the sox are "very interested". The Sox should not act on this. They should not sign Carlos Beltran. Signing him would move an aging Victorino to center, it would cut into Jonny Gomes playing time, and lastly it may move Daniel Nava to first base which isn't terrible but not preferred. Hopefully this isn't the big splash the Sox make.
Tim Hudson: A veteran right hander, Tim Hudson is a free agent after a long and successful career in Atlanta. Ross could also be big in bringing Hudson in, but the problem is the Sox already have 6 starters, when Major League teams only go with 5. If they really want the 38 year old, they will have to move a starter which would most likely be Peavy or Dempster (but don't rule out Lackey or Buchholz). I see this as a long shot and probably something not to get your hopes up about.
Carlos Ruiz: Another catcher, 34 year old Ruiz would be a decent option for the Sox. He could split with Ross and have Ryan Lavarnway catch every now and then. This will only happen if the sox believe one of their 3 minor league guys are close to making it to the Big Show. (Those 3 being Vazquez, Snyder and Swihart).
Bullpen: By way of Free Agency, I could see the Sox picking up any of the following 3: Jesse Crain, Joaquin Benoit or Edward Mujica. Those are some names to keep an eye on.
TRADE TARGETS:
Giancarlo Stanton: Very Unlikely, but if Ellsbury is going to walk, why not inquire about Stanton? The only downside is they would probably have to include Xander Bogaerts.
David Price: Another unlikely but talked about trade is David Price. I can't see the Rays trading their stud pitcher within the division, and the Sox would have to give up a lot to get him.
Ryan Hanigan: An Andover native, Hanigan brings personality but not necessarily the statistics. Could be a minor move to get a backup catcher.
Hopefully the Sox make the right choices and have another great season!
See you at Spring Training Dr. Creepy!
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